Gametime: 3:30 pm
Records: Penn State: 9-0 (5-0), Iowa: 5-4 (2-3)
Series Record: Penn State leads, 11-9
TV: ABC Regional/ESPN
Audio: Here
Weather: High of 39, 40% chance of rain and snow showers. Big11Ten weather.
For the players, nothing is better than a mid-season bye week. We're glad everyone, especially Clark, was able to rest and heal up. But for the fans, nothing is worse. After the longest two weeks of our lives, it's great to be back.
This weekend the Lions roll into Iowa City to try to keep the undefeated campaign alive. We are pumped, as this will probably be the toughest test Penn State faces the rest of the way (no disrespect to Michigan State, but that one is at home).
When you think of Iowa, you think of............ well, we're not sure that you really think of anything. Seriously, when is the last time you can remember that Iowa had a team that prompted you thinking something other then, "meh, it's Iowa"? Of course they've given Penn State trouble in the past. Save for last year, the Lions lost their last five to the Hawkeyes, including that classic 6-4 shootout at the Beav in '04. Who of us can forget the excitement of that one?
But in all honesty, despite their mediocre record, this Iowa team has played pretty well this season. Their defense is ranked third in the Big11Ten and their four losses have been by a combined 12 points. Of course, great teams find a way to win those close games, but still Iowa has not been blown out all year.
So if Iowa is really that solid, can they give Penn State a run for their money? It could be a close game, but here are two reasons why we think the Lions will prevail:
1. Iowa's Lack of a Passing Game
It's no secret that Iowa likes to run the ball. With a back like Shonn Greene, who is fifth in the nation in rushing, why wouldn't they? But on the other hand, the passing game is dismal. Iowa ranks just eighth in the conference in passing, and QB Ricky Stanzi's accuracy has come into question a bit lately, as he's been unable to throw for 200 yards in any of Iowa's last four games.
This gives Penn State an obvious advantage, as they will be able to focus heavily on stopping Greene and put the game on Stanzi's shoulders. If you are skeptical of strategy, just ask Beanie Wells how his game against the PSU D went a couple weeks ago. And if Stanzi is forced to put the game on his shoulders, the Lions' D-line should be able to make plays. Iowa's O-line does a good job in the running game, but they've struggled in pass protection, allowing 20 sacks on the season, including six last week to an average Illinois defense. We like the Penn State D to have another big-time performance.
2. Penn State's Balanced Offense
Iowa has a very solid defense, led by lineman Matt Kroul (44 tackles, 2 sacks) and Mitch King (43 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks), and linebacker Pat Angerer (73 tackles, 4 int, great football name). Iowa ranks second only to Penn State in the conference in rush defense and is fourth in pass defense. Their defense is the reason they've been able to keep so many games close this year.
However, they've also yet see an offense as dynamic as Penn State's. This team can hurt you in every way imaginable. Evan Royster somehow turns 1-yard gains into 7 or 8-yard gains on a routine basis, the line is outstanding, the receiving corps is rock-solid and Clark just doesn't make many mistakes. It could be a tough day on the ground early on for Royster, but we think the O-line will wear down Iowa's D as the game wears on. However, if the run game isn't working out, Clark should be able to make enough plays down field to build a lead, which is a luxury that Iowa doesn't share on offense. This offense has only really been shut down once, we don't think they'll let it happen again.
This weekend the Lions roll into Iowa City to try to keep the undefeated campaign alive. We are pumped, as this will probably be the toughest test Penn State faces the rest of the way (no disrespect to Michigan State, but that one is at home).
When you think of Iowa, you think of............ well, we're not sure that you really think of anything. Seriously, when is the last time you can remember that Iowa had a team that prompted you thinking something other then, "meh, it's Iowa"? Of course they've given Penn State trouble in the past. Save for last year, the Lions lost their last five to the Hawkeyes, including that classic 6-4 shootout at the Beav in '04. Who of us can forget the excitement of that one?
But in all honesty, despite their mediocre record, this Iowa team has played pretty well this season. Their defense is ranked third in the Big11Ten and their four losses have been by a combined 12 points. Of course, great teams find a way to win those close games, but still Iowa has not been blown out all year.
So if Iowa is really that solid, can they give Penn State a run for their money? It could be a close game, but here are two reasons why we think the Lions will prevail:
1. Iowa's Lack of a Passing Game
It's no secret that Iowa likes to run the ball. With a back like Shonn Greene, who is fifth in the nation in rushing, why wouldn't they? But on the other hand, the passing game is dismal. Iowa ranks just eighth in the conference in passing, and QB Ricky Stanzi's accuracy has come into question a bit lately, as he's been unable to throw for 200 yards in any of Iowa's last four games.
This gives Penn State an obvious advantage, as they will be able to focus heavily on stopping Greene and put the game on Stanzi's shoulders. If you are skeptical of strategy, just ask Beanie Wells how his game against the PSU D went a couple weeks ago. And if Stanzi is forced to put the game on his shoulders, the Lions' D-line should be able to make plays. Iowa's O-line does a good job in the running game, but they've struggled in pass protection, allowing 20 sacks on the season, including six last week to an average Illinois defense. We like the Penn State D to have another big-time performance.
2. Penn State's Balanced Offense
Iowa has a very solid defense, led by lineman Matt Kroul (44 tackles, 2 sacks) and Mitch King (43 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks), and linebacker Pat Angerer (73 tackles, 4 int, great football name). Iowa ranks second only to Penn State in the conference in rush defense and is fourth in pass defense. Their defense is the reason they've been able to keep so many games close this year.
However, they've also yet see an offense as dynamic as Penn State's. This team can hurt you in every way imaginable. Evan Royster somehow turns 1-yard gains into 7 or 8-yard gains on a routine basis, the line is outstanding, the receiving corps is rock-solid and Clark just doesn't make many mistakes. It could be a tough day on the ground early on for Royster, but we think the O-line will wear down Iowa's D as the game wears on. However, if the run game isn't working out, Clark should be able to make enough plays down field to build a lead, which is a luxury that Iowa doesn't share on offense. This offense has only really been shut down once, we don't think they'll let it happen again.
Iowa Player To Watch: Shonn Greene
They're having a Greene-out for him! He must be something. He is fifth in the nation in rushing and really the key to the game. If PSU slows him down, it's going to be tough for Iowa to pull this one out.
Penn State Player To Watch: The D-Line
How will they slow down Shonn Greene?
They did a solid job against Wells, so we know they can get it done when they have to. But that was in a huge game and people had been pumped up for weeks. The defense to avoid any kind of let down after a big game and shake off any rust from the bye week and come out swinging. However, when you have a staff like PSU does, we don't expect that to be a problem.
3 Bold Predictions:
- The offense scores a touchdown before the fourth quarter.
- Shonn Greene doesn't break 80 yards.
- Mark Rubin's not done. Pick six this week. Book it.
- Penn State is 1-5 against Iowa since 2000, with the lone win coming last year at home.
- Iowa is doing both a black-out and a "Greene-out" at the game. Sounds like an identity crisis to us.
Iowa may keep it close for a while, but Penn State has too much for them to handle. Herky the Hawk is going down.
Game Prediction: Penn State 27, Iowa 10
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