Game 12 Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

Gametime: 3:30 pm

Records: Penn State: 10-1 (6-1), Michigan State: 9-2, (6-1)

Series Record: Tied, 12-12-1 (Penn State leads the Big11Ten series record 11-4)

TV: ABC

Audio: Here

Weather: High of 28 and snow showers. Dress warm.

All the marbles.

We all know what's on the line here. A Big11Ten title. A trip to Pasadena. A little national respect. There have been a lot of big games this season, but as of right now, tomorrow is the biggest.

As for the game, it feels eerily similar to a couple others we've played this year. Penn State is facing off against a Michigan State team that has a stud running back and a passing game that is a bit anemic. Remind you of anyone? Maybe Ohio State and Iowa?

Well, the strategy is the same in this one as it was for those two. Stop the run and make the mediocre quarterback beat you. One time the Lions stopped the run masterfully, and they won. The other time they didn't, and..... you know.

So Penn State's front seven will have to step up and stop arguably the best running back in the conference, Javon Ringer. Ringer's been a beast all year, no doubt, but if the big boys up front can stop him, Michigan State may really struggle to move the ball. Despite Ringer's 140 yards per game this season, the Spartans rank only 8th in the Big11Ten in rushing with 150 yards per game. That stat means they have virtually nothing else besides Ringer to throw at you out of the backfield. On the other hand, they haven't really needed anything else yet. But the objective is clear: stop Ringer and make Brian Hoyer beat you.

We've seen Hoyer in action under center a few times this year. We can hardly say we were impressed. Now, he doesn't have a great receiving corps (we loss count of the drops they had against Wisconsin), but sometimes he makes throws that leave you scratching your head wondering what the hell he was thinking. That's the kind of quarterback we like to see.

Penn State's defense is ranked 1st in the conference in terms of passing yardage allowed, and if they play smart, put some pressure on Hoyer and force a couple turnovers, we think things will be A-OK. Of course you can forget we said all of this if Tom Bradley just drops them back into a soft-ass zone on every third and long like he did against Iowa. For everyone's sake, let's hope the defense comes out aggressive.

As has been the case most of the season, we haven't said much about Penn State's offense. That's because for most of the season, it's been extremely good, and we don't really need to say much. But the Indiana game marked the second straight game that the offense started slowly. Blame Clark, blame the playcalling, blame your drunken friends or whatever you want, but the offense has to come out and set the tone early this weekend. Michigan State is 8-0 this year when they score first, so getting on the board early is going to be key. We have confidence that the offense can come out and put together a nice first drive like they were doing earlier in the season. If they can give a lead to the defense, we like our chances in this one.

And oh by the way, like we said, on paper this game looks a lot like the Iowa game. Except for one huge difference:

Bring it.

Michigan State Player To Watch: QB Brian Hoyer
Ringer is the obvious choice here, but we know he'll get his touches and to win, PSU is going to have to shut him down. So if they do, all the pressure falls on Hoyer. And that would probably be a good thing, as he's completed just 49% of his passes this year (and just 43% the last two games). In the cold weather, against a stout pass defense and a hostile crowd, Hoyer is going to have to play out of his mind in this one.

Penn State Player To Watch: Derrick Williams
This is the swan song at home for a guy who's done more than his fair share to turn this program around from its awful stretch earlier in the decade. His signing and subsequent performance in his first year increased Penn State's exposure and put it firmly back in the national picture as a football school. While his performance on the field was less than stellar at times, we feel that this was less his fault than most people probably think (check out the Roundtable from yesterday). And this is his last chance to make a few more explosive plays before what should be an appreciative home crowd.

3 Bold Predictions:

• D-Will scores another rushing touchdown.
  
• Royster scores two.
  
• Saturday night, we'll be drinking to a Big11Ten Championship.
  

Other Notes

• Ringer's a beast, but we don't think he's better than Shonn Greene.
• It's going to be a cold tailgate.

Okay, we have to admit that we were feeling a little blah about this game earlier in the week. But now that it's almost here, we're pumped. You don't get the chance to win a conference title every year, and to do it at home would be amazing. If Penn State plays up to their full potential, they win easily. Since that's been a bit of an issue lately, we think this one will be close throughout. But they will pull away in the end.

Game Prediction: Penn State 28, Michigan State 14