Game 5 Preview: Illinois @ Penn State

Gametime: 8:00 pm

Records: Penn State: 4-0, Illinois: 2-1

Series Record: Penn State leads, 12-3

TV: ABC

Audio: Here

Weather: Cloudy with showers (40% chance), high of 70

The wait is over folks. Sure, we were all excited when the season kicked off against Coastal Carolina. But when you’re playing weak teams, the non-conference schedule is like preseason hockey: you’re excited it’s back but it’s just not quite the real thing.

This weekend is the real thing. Not only is it the conference opener for our beloved Nittany Lions, but it’s a night game, its on national TV, and oh yeah, it’s at the Beav (which will be rocking). If you’re going to the game, kudos, and send us some pictures/leave some comments about the experience. If you’re not, get your ass to a TV and watch this one. If you’re not pumped up about this, you may never be.

Now let’s break things down:

PSU Offense vs. Illinois Defense
Going into this weekend, we’d give the edge to Penn State’s offense against almost any team in the land. Until the offensive unit (hahaha, offensive unit) cools off, we have no reason to believe they won’t put up some big numbers. Daryl Clark will continue to lead the conference’s top scoring offense this weekend against the Illini, and he has so many weapons around them that he really just needs to stay calm and not make mistakes. Clark’s done a fine job in pressure situations (not that we’ve had that many) as Penn State leads the conference in third down conversion percentage (57.7%). If he can scramble out of a couple sticky situations and not make mistakes in the passing game, the team should be in fine shape.

But what about those weapons? Well we all feel good about the receivers at this point. Norwood and Butler have been stellar so far and Derrick Williams is always a threat to take one to the house. But the key to this contest will be the running game. As long as the Lions establish the run early to set up the pass, they should be fine. And the way the O-line is playing, that shouldn’t be asking too much. Royster and Green have combined for 167 yards per game and 11 TDs so far, and the offense will rely on them to both set the tone early and salt the game away late. We’re looking for Royster especially to have a big game. He’s left opponents in the dust all year, and even Usain Bolt can’t help but be impressed:

Don't showboat next time.

As for the Illini defense, saying that they haven’t been stout is an understatement. They’re currently dead last in the conference in scoring defense and next to last in rushing yards allowed per game. Now when you give up 52 points and a billion yards to Missouri, then your averages are going to look bad. But we’re particularly intrigued by the rushing yards per game. If Illinois’ D-line can’t handle the load early on, it could be a long night for them.

As much as its been troubled early on, the Illini D has some fine players. Their linebacking corps is very solid, and senior Brit Miller leads the Big11Ten with 12 tackles per game. Vontae Davis is a shutdown corner in the backfield, and since the beat-down against Mizzo, Illinois has done a better job on pass D. But will Davis have enough help to handle Penn State’s triple threat? We think not.


PSU Defense vs. Illinois Offense

We believe there's a cliche for this. Something about unstoppable forces and immovable objects? We can't remember exactly how it goes, but it applies to this, we think.
When the Illini come to Happy Valley next week it's going to be the number two scoring offense in the Big11Ten versus the number two scoring defense. Illinois is averaging 36.3 points per game, while Penn State is allowing 10. Their scoring is largely lead by Juice Williams, who is rushing for an average of 73 ypg and throwing for another 240.7. He has also accounted for nine touchdowns, including two of their five rushing touchdowns.

Fortunately for Penn State, Juice has already thrown five picks in the first three games. We're pretty confident we'll see numbers six and seven this weekend.

Also fortunate is that Rashard Mendenhall will be suiting up Monday night to play for the Steelers (fortunate for Ravens fans, that is) and not this coming Saturday. Mendenhall's replacement, Daniel Dufrene, does seem capable though. He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry and 100 yards per game. His workload has been light, only fifteen carries per game, but he's been up to the task when he's been given the ball.

The Illini will also bring Aurelius Benn to town. We're pretty sick of seeing that clip of him breaking 15 tackles on the way to the end zone last year, so hopefully the Lions find a way to hold him back.

Illinois brings a solid offense to town, but how will they handle a real defense? Missouri allowed them to put up 530 yards, which has really sort of skewed the stats for Illini. After that 451 yard passing performance for Juice, he only passed for 124 and 175 in the next two games, against bad teams. While it seems like the offense is nice and balanced, we think that if the Lions can put the clamp on Juice, there shouldn't be too much else they can do to move the ball. As Juice goes, so go the Illini. They'll move the ball and they'll score some points, but we feel the defense will make more big plays than their offense and allow the PSU offense (who probably won't see much resistance from the Illini defense) to take the game over.

Illinois Player To Watch: Quarterback Juice Williams
Juice is easily the player with the most pressure on his shoulders for Illinois, as the offense runs almost solely through him. In addition to his passing duties, Williams also has the most carries on the team, and will need to handle that load if running back Daniel Dufrene has a rough time early. It's as simple as this for Penn State's D: stop the Juice, win the game.

Penn State Player(s) To Watch: Offensive Line
If the big guys open up holes early for Royster and Green, look out. If they can control the ground game and protect Clark as well as they have been, the Lions will be in fine shape.

3 Bold Predictions:

• Royster will put up 2 touchdowns
  
• Jordan Norwood will have at least 10 receptions
  
• A blog will make a bad joke after the game combining the words "juice" and "orange", but it won't be this one
  

Other Notes:

• Penn State has won its last 7 at home versus Illinois

Game Prediction: Penn State 37, Illinois 17