Game 7 Preview: Penn State @ Wisconsin

Gametime: 8:00 pm

Records: Penn State: 6-0 (2-0), Wisconsin: 3-2 (0-2)

Series Record: Wisconsin leads, 8-5

TV: ESPN

Audio: Here

Weather: 64 degrees at game time, clear skies, 0% chance of rain

"P.J. Hill approves the following." -P.J. Hill

When you look at the stats, Wisconsin probably should have a better record than 3-2. But the stats don't tell the whole story, as usual. Blowing a 19-point halftime lead to Michigan would be awful even if Michigan were having a good year, but doing it during what is obviously a transition year for the Wolverines is unacceptable. The Badgers had every chance to bounce back last weekend, but their defense couldn't stop a true freshman QB when they needed to. (To be fair, it was the top recruit in the nation, but he's still a freshman.)

Despite all that, we're scared as hell of this team, because its still loaded with talent, and it's still one of the most dangerous teams in the conference. This is the first huge test of the season for Penn State, and if they can stare down the Badgers and beat them up in Camp Randall, they will be loaded with confidence the rest of the way. Before we get to our prediction, let's look at some important areas of the Wisconsin squad, and how the Lions will need to deal with them:

Running Backs
For the Badgers, the 5'11", 236 pound junior P.J. Hill is a bruising power back who is fourth in the conference in rushing. The backup is John Clay, who at 6'2" 237 is also a beast, but is a little quicker than Hill. Clay had a nice game against OSU and is averaging 6.7 ypc so far this year.

When you compare the Badgers ground attack to Penn State's, there's not a WHOLE lot of difference between the two, at least statistically. Both teams have two very talented backs, and both are near the top of the conference in rushing. Penn State leads the Big11Ten with a whopping 256 yards a game on the ground, while Wisconsin is third with 210. Both will try to establish the run early to set up the pass. The Penn State D-Line will have their hands full with the talent of the Wisconsin backfield and if they can shut them down, they can shift all the pressure to Allan Evridge.

QB
Fifth-year senior Allan Evridge is at the helm for Wisconsin, although his job is in jeopardy after two straight losses in which he had very rough outings. He's completing just 56% of his passes this year and he's thrown 4 picks to only 5 touchdowns. He's been shaky at best so far.

Evridge is at his best when he can rely on the run and just manage the game. Penn State needs to shut down the run and put the game squarely on Evridge's shoulders. If they make him win the game for the Badgers, they should be in good shape. Pressure early will be key.

Receivers
Wisconsin is just 9th in the conference in passing, but a lot of that has to do with Evridge. He does have some weapons to throw to, however. The Badgers have a great tight end tandem with junior Garrett Graham and senior All-American Travis Beckum. Beckum is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards, and Graham leads the team with 3 TD receptions. Sophomore wideout David Gilreath leads the team in receiving with only 14 catches and 167 yards, so you can see that the passing game is a little anemic.

The backers and secondary will have to stick tight to Beckum and Graham, but the real key to stopping the pass will be to put lots of pressure on Evridge, early and often.

Defense
We would break the defense down by unit if we weren't so lazy and actually knew a little something about each of the units. But those are two big factors playing against us, so we give you this.

The Badgers' D isn't quite as stout as they were in years past, but they are still talented and can control games when they're playing well. In the conference, they're currently 6th in scoring defense, 4th in pass defense and just 7th in rush defense. That last stat is particularly interesting to us. Linebackers Jaevery McFadden and DeAndre Levy lead the team in tackles with 44 and 33, respectively. Levy also has 6 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.

While the Badgers' D is solid, there are a few holes that the Lions can attack. If they can win the battle on the line and get Royster and Green moving early, it will really open things up for Clark, Williams, Butler and Norwood (and hopefully Galen Hall's playbook). The Badgers aren't super fast on D, but they are physical. As Clark may need to make some plays on his feet, he'll need to watch his ass and stay away from getting drilled. If the Lions offense can rebound from a lackluster performance last week and return to their dynamic form from the Illinois game, they shouldn't have TOO much of a problem scoring against this D.

Wisconsin Player To Watch: QB Allan Evridge
Alright, it seems really easy to pick Evridge, but he is the correct choice here. This entire game depends on him for the Badgers. Their defense usually keeps things close, but can Evridge pull it together and lead the offense on some sustained drives? It's not going to be easy against the stout Lions' D, but if he doesn't do it, the Badgers are staring down an 0-3 start in the conference.

Penn State Player To Watch: Jordan Norwood
It's almost becoming too hard to pick just one guy to watch on this team, but since Norwood is coming off of an injury, we'll go with him. He's such a key to the passing game, always making a big impact, but in a quiet fashion (if that makes sense). Watch him early and see if his hamstring is 100%. It would be great to have him out there in full force this week.

3 Bold Predictions:

• Clark will post a season-high rushing mark this week.
• Norwood makes at least two catches in key 3rd down conversion situations.
• Someone in the Wisconsin band will be fondled by a tuba player.

Other Notes:

• Penn State is 2-5 all time at Camp Randall Stadium, and hasn't won there since 2002
• The Blue Band could whoop Wisconsin's Band's ass

This one is going to be close until the fourth quarter. Penn State is going to score, get the ball back and the let Royster salt the game away. And it will be glorious.

Game Prediction: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 13